The talk of the Arab street during the past few days has become the possibility of an all-out war between the Turkish and Egyptian armies exploding on Libyan soil, especially since many military analysts and observers are already talking about the imminent war between Ankara and Cairo in Libya, which raises many questions, perhaps the most important of which are:
What are the war scenarios if they break out?
How big is the actual military strength of Egypt and Turkey?
What is the ability of the Turkish army to continue to supply from his country to Libya?
Why Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not pay the costs of the war to Egypt?
Prelude to war
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi threatened, more than once, to intervene to protect and rescue Major-General Khalifa Hifter, who turned against the legitimate government of National Accord in Libya, saying that “Sartra and Al-Jafra are a red line.”
Sisi, whose country is undergoing the greatest threat in its recent and ancient history, is the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will affect Egypt’s share of water and threaten the thirst of its inhabitants. To enter the war in Libya.
On July 19, 2020, the National Defense Council met under Sisi’s leadership, stressing that Libyan security is an integral part of Egyptian and Arab national security, and one day later the Egyptian Parliament (Parliament) met and authorized Sisi to send forces outside the borders in the western strategic direction (Libya).
On the other hand, Turkey stands there on solid ground, the fact that its intervention came after a military agreement signed with the legitimate government of Al-Wefaq, headed by the internationally recognized winner of Al-Sarraj, as well as continuous American coordination, support for its country’s parliament, and near-international support.
It seems that Egypt is now preoccupied with a future water war with Ethiopia and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi appears to have referred the dam file to the armed forces because the political solution has reached a dead end, and it is not easy for Egypt to fight on two fronts, in addition to the Gulf states supporting Egypt (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) not Able to finance Egypt at these times for several reasons, the most important of which are:
1 – The cost of war will be very high, as it may extend for months or even years.
2 – Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already suffering from economic crises.
3 – Low oil prices, which hit the Saudi economist at the top of the Saudis’ livelihood and the decrease in the government budget.
4 – The collapse of the global economy after the Corona virus crisis, which greatly affected the economies of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, as well as most of the world’s economies.
5 – The huge losses for the two countries in Yemen and the huge costs that have not yet ended.
These same reasons may deter the Egyptian president from recklessness and entering militarily in Libya because he will not find anyone to finance his war and its huge cost.
Although the potential for confrontation between the two armies is weak, military experts expect the war to be through air strikes at night, and a sudden armed clash, especially since the armies of the two countries cannot fight outside their borders, but if the Egyptians drown one piece of sea for Turkey, a sudden all-out war will spread and will extend This confrontation is for years, not months, because it will take a reaction, according to experts.
The size of the Turkish military force
There are a number of advanced military capabilities that distinguish the Turkish army, which is that it has a higher military budget than Egypt, as Turkey allocated 19 billion dollars for military spending in its last budget compared to 11 billion dollars allocated by Egypt, in addition to that the Turkish army is ranked 11th among Countries of the world.
During the year 2020, the budget of the Turkish army amounted to about 1.2 trillion liras (200 billion dollars). The Turkish army has 355,000 soldiers in service, compared to 380,000 reservists.
Turkey has the ability to operate a fleet of warships equipped with anti-ship missiles and submarines, as well as an air fleet, which can provide air support to the forces, in addition to that Turkey relies heavily on the massive offensive support capabilities of the ground forces.
Turkey is also the second largest force in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the high-level NATO logistical standards, and Egypt knows this.
The Turkish Air Force has 1055 aircrafts, including 497 helicopters, which are attack aircraft, which is considered a huge fleet of helicopters and distinguishes it from Egypt in this weapon, and 207 combat aircraft, in addition to that Turkey excels in the drones weapon known as “Bayrakdar”, and it is also available It has the Russian S-400 air defense system.
Turkey has 194 marine vessels, and gives submarine weapon the superiority of the Turkish navy, as it has 12 submarines, as well as the number of frigates as it has 16 frigates, 11 anti-mine ships, and 10 corvettes.
Turkey has 3,200 tanks, 9,500 armored vehicles, 1,278 artillery units, and 1,230 field artillery units.
Turkish military hardware is heavily dependent on ground capabilities, utilizing modernized older tanks, armored vehicles alongside Fartina 155/52 howitzers, and anti-tank missiles.
The size of the Egyptian military force
As for Egypt, it has substantially improved its air and naval capabilities, with “rapid and offensive modernization efforts” in previous years, through arms deals with the United States, France and Russia.
The Egyptian army has 440 thousand soldiers, and the reserve forces in the army consist of 450 thousand soldiers. Likewise, the Egyptian Air Force owns 1054 military parcels, of which 215 are combat aircraft, and Egypt has 316 naval vessels, and it has two helicopter carriers, 8 submarines, and 7 Frigates, 7 corvettes, 31 anti-mine ships, and Egypt has two Mistral amphibious ships, which Cairo bought from France.
Egypt has a group of air defense missiles, including the Russian S-300 system and Patriot missiles, and it has an air defense network, and Egypt also has 4295 combat tanks, the Egyptian army also has a larger number of armored vehicles by 11700, while the self-propelled artillery units have The Egyptian army 1139, and Egypt has a field artillery forces about 2189.