The French investment bank, Societe Generale, forecasts that Qatar’s gross domestic product will reach $ 200 billion in 2021, increasing from $ 195.2 billion this year. The specialized investment bank said that although the country’s GDP growth, at constant prices, may be in the negative region this year, it is estimated that it will rise 5% in 2021. Societe Generale said that it is expected that per capita GDP will rise The gross domestic product in Qatar is from $ 70,737 this year to $ 72,554 in 2021. Estimates indicate that Qatar’s gross government debt, as a percentage of GDP, will drop to 43.1% in 2021 from 47.9% this year. Societe Generale estimates inflation at 2.4% in 2021 from -1.2% in Qatar this year.
Expected boom And
quoting the updated IMF forecasts in April 2020, the French Investment Bank said that due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, GDP growth is expected to drop to -4.3% in 2020 to rise to 5% in 2021, According to the forecasts of the global economic recovery expected after the epidemic, and the expected boom in the services sector before the 2022 World Cup. The bank says in its report that the Qatari economy began to grow faster after the first quarter of 2019 with the increase in government spending, especially with regard to wages in the public sector .
This helped boost the economy later as it showed signs of slowing down with most major infrastructure and construction projects related to the World Cup completed. However, the report adds, public government debt growth was estimated to 53.2% of GDP in 2019, from 48.6% a year ago, as the country continued to borrow on international markets.
The International Monetary Fund expects debt to decrease in the coming years, by 48% in 2020 and 43.1% in 2021. The current account surplus has shrunk to 2.4% of GDP in 2019 from 8.7% a year ago with global energy prices down. However, the International Monetary Fund predicts that this trend will be significantly affected by the negative economic impact of the Covid 19 epidemic and falling oil prices, and the current account balance is expected to be negative in 2020 and 2021 at -1.9% and -1.8%, respectively.
However, Societe Generale believes that operating the Barzan natural gas facility this year could support the sector’s production locally and contribute positively to growth. In the medium term, expansion of gas projects in the North Field is expected to be completed by 2024, which will boost gas production. The report also indicated that Qatar is the largest exporter of LNG in the world and has the third largest gas reserves in the world. It is estimated at 16% of the global total, and therefore the country’s economy is highly concentrated in the gas industry, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP and about 80% of export earnings.
Earlier, Capital Economics expected that the economy of Qatar would continue with the start of production in the Barzan field project, which would boost the growth of the oil sector, to grow by 2 percent and 2.5 percent for the current and next years, respectively. The agency expected the growth of Qatari gas production with the start of production in the Barzan project in the coming months, in addition to the project reaching full energy by the end of 2020, which will raise gas production by 7 percent, pushing the GDP to grow just over 2 percent. The World Bank also expected growth in the hydrocarbons sector to increase with the start of the Barzan natural gas facility in 2020, and with the expansion of North Field projects, for natural gas as well, by 2024.