Analysis
HS2: The morphing conundrum – Why are so many people upset with rail project?
As the salami-slicing of HS2 edges on, even those who support it are starting to wonder whether the government will end up spending a lot of money on a project that no longer really delivers the stated aims.
Rob Powell
Political correspondent @robpowellnews
Thursday 9 March 2023 20:17, UK
Hs2 map
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The delay will affect the northwest section of HS2, from Birmingham to Crewe, and then from Crewe to Manchester.
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Why are so many people so upset with HS2?
For a rail line pitched as the backbone of Britain’s transport network, the project is morphing into the type of thorny political conundrum that gradually angers everybody – whatever their views were on the plan.
For those MPs dead against it, no tweaks will ever go far enough.
“They should just put the thing out if it’s misery and bank the money,” said one long-term critic.
The danger is that as the salami-slicing of the scheme edges on, even those who support it start to wonder whether the government will end up spending a lot of money on a project that no longer really delivers the stated aims.
The delay in completing the Birmingham to Crewe section has grabbed headlines, but two other longer-term changes hiding in the announcement are also significant.
Firstly, there’s more uncertainty about when HS2 trains will actually reach central London.
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The line from Old Oak Common in west London to Birmingham will be prioritised we’re told, with Euston delivered “alongside” Manchester.
Given the current timetable for the Manchester link is 2035-41, that potentially means a longer wait for this intercity connection reaching the centre of the country’s capital city.
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The government has announced the construction of sections of HS2 will be delayed by two years to save money.
Officials say the government is still “fully committed” to Euston but admit the situation there is “challenging”.
Secondly, the promise to build a brand-new line from Crewe to Manchester appears to have softened somewhat.
Government sources say the existing timetable for high-speed trains reaching Manchester has not changed.
But there’s little clarity on whether this will be achieved by sending the carriages up existing lines or laying new ones.
There is a danger with just upgrading the current network. Putting high speed trains on the same tracks as slower stopping services risks limiting capacity and reliability benefits.
“That’s what determines whether the whole thing is a waste of money or not… the West Coast route modernisation cost £25bn in today’s money and the capacity benefits were gobbled up in two years”, said rail engineer and writer Gareth Dennis.
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On the upside for the government, MPs in the Tory held constituencies lying along the route between Crewe and Manchester may breathe a sigh of relief.
Any political benefit will likely be outweighed by the damaging optics of more delays to this project though.
Remember, it was only just over a year ago that the eastern leg of the line to Leeds was axed.
Can ministers genuinely claim to be committed to levelling up in the Midlands and north when this most visible sign of the concept is being continually trimmed back?
The government says these latest changes are being made because of rising prices and rampant inflation in the construction sector.
Shifting the timescale may mean budgets can be maintained in the short term.
But in the long term, even the boss of the company created to build the rail line has suggested delays will make the entire scheme more expensive to complete.
So where could we end up?
With a hugely delayed and massively overbudget rail line running in large areas on existing track that doesn’t even initially reach central London.
No wonder so many people are so upset with HS2.
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