The first exit polls after the French parliamentary election’s opening round on Sunday show that President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition Ensemble is well on its way to gathering most of the 577 seats available to the MPs chasing the new five-year term.

NUPES, an unexpected left-wing alliance consisting La France Insoumise, Socialist, Green and Communist parties and led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is firmly in what is a close second place, meaning that Macron and Ensemble might not have enough to keep their absolute majority in the National Assembly.

Percentage of votes-wise, Macron and Mélenchon blocs are neck and neck, with the latter even possibly faring better with a maximum projected vote of 26,2% compared to Ensemble’s 25,8%.

However, this does not translate directly to the seats, where Ensemble could get between 255 and 310 according to different polls, compared to NUPES’ possible range of between 150 and 220 deputies.

Right after 9 pm, Mélenchon was quick to claim that the tight race according to the number of votes signalled the defeat of Ensemble, with NUPES representatives challenging the predicted number of seats won by Macron’s bloc.

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne fired back, saying that Ensemble is “the only political force capable of obtaining a majority”.

Far-right and nationalist Rassemblement led by Marine Le Pen — who lost to Macron in the second round of presidential elections in April — is expected to come in third, receiving around 19% of the vote with 10-25 seats, which would be more than her current eight in the Assembly.

But since the battle for each seat is its own local race, the election for all candidates who do not win 50% of the vote will be decided in the second and final round to be held on Sunday 19 June.

Low turnout for parliamentary elections persists

The results came as the turnout for the parliamentary election was again noticeably lower than in past elections.

Already by noon, it was clear that the turnout of 18.43% at noon was almost one point lower than in 2017, when it stood at 19.24%. The noon turnout for the presidential election earlier this year was almost exactly six points higher, standing at 25.48%.

At 39,42% at 5 pm CET, the number of those who went out to vote was still below the 2017 figures. As the polls closed at 8 pm, the final turnout is expected to be around 47%, with a majority of French voters opting to stay at home.

French voters were choosing from a whopping 6,293 candidates vying for election on 12 June — which works out as nearly 11 candidates per constituency on average.

Of these, 55.8% are men (or 3,514 candidates), and 44.2% are women (2,779 candidates).

The parliamentary election, seeking to choose the députés or MPs elected to the Assemblée Nationale for the next five years, comes after Emmanuel Macron won a second five-year term as France’s president in April.

But the centrist pro-European needs to win a majority in parliament to have the best chance of pushing through his policies, including tax reductions, increasing the retirement age and an overhaul of the welfare system.

That ambition remains in the balance. Polls before the first round showed his centrist coalition was only slightly ahead of Melenchon’s NUPES bloc, and today’s results have reflected what is turning out to be a distinctly tight race, with 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

Macron will be hoping he does not become the first president since 2002 to have to deal with “cohabitation” — a situation in which the prime minister is not on the same political side and the president does not have a majority in the assembly.