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ANALYSIS
No signs North Korea testing advanced drones months after propaganda reveal
Evidence yet to emerge DPRK is producing or deploying UAVs, a sign the aircraft used in flyovers were prototypes
Colin ZwirkoNovember 20, 2023
No signs North Korea testing advanced drones months after propaganda reveal
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A North Korean Air Force SB-4 reconnaissance drone modeled after the U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk at Panghyon Airbase during testing | Image: KCTV (July 27, 2023)
An airfield where North Korea tested new combat and spy drones over the summer has gone quiet, with no signs of large-scale production or deployment just months after the official reveal of the aircraft mimicking American models.
NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery shows flight testing activity at Panghyon Airbase likely stopped soon after the July 27 military parade, where a combat unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) modeled after the U.S.-made Reaper and a larger reconnaissance drone based on the U.S. Global Hawk conducted flyovers.
The apparent halt in testing raises the likelihood that the initial activity was for the purpose of producing propaganda rather than a sign of their imminent deployment.
NK Pro was first to reveal details of the Panghyon tests in June. North Korea calls its RQ-4 Global Hawk-type reconnaissance UAV the Saetbyol-4 (SB-4) and its MQ-9 Reaper-type combat UAV the Saetbyol-9 (SB-9).
A comparison of the two types of military drones North Korea claims to be developing | Images: KCTV; edited by NK Pro
TURBO PROPAGANDA
Available evidence suggests North Korea’s military drone project is likely still in the research and development stage and that the models seen in July were likely prototypes.
Printed serial numbers on the UAVs at the July parade and a weapons expo taking place the same week suggest Pyongyang has produced at least four Reaper-type models (Nos. 2101003, 2101005, 2101007, 2101009) and two Global Hawk-type models (Nos. 2102001 and 2102002) for flight tests and display.
Only one serial number of each type was clearly seen in brief clips of flight tests shown on state television, making it difficult to determine with confidence how many UAVs are fully built out and flightworthy.
State media has not promoted either model in dedicated reports on tests or inspections by Kim Jong Un, though the DPRK leader was depicted watching flight tests in photographs displayed at the weapons expo.
Kim Jong Un reportedly visited an unidentified factory “manufacturing strategic cruise missile and armed UAV engines” in early August, ordering workers to “put the production processes on a modern, scientific and precise basis of a higher level” and “mass-produce various kinds of cutting-edge strategic weapon engines.”
Kim’s reference to “armed UAV engines” could mean the factory produces both turbofan engines for the cruise missiles and turboprop engines for the Reaper-type SB-9 combat drone, or two types of turbofan engines for the missiles and an unrevealed combat drone.
The Global Hawk-type SB-4 reconnaissance drone appeared to use a turbofan engine, but was not mentioned in the factory visit report.
These images represent the only known serial numbers for North Korea’s two drone types as depicted in footage of a weapons expo, military parade and flight testing shown on July 27 and 28 | Images: KCTV, KCNA; edited by NK Pro
However, unlike other weapons factories Kim visited the same month, no images of engine production lines were included with the report, suggesting the engines may not be under mass production yet.
The use of Panghyon Airbase for flight testing points to an aircraft factory attached to the airbase as a key candidate for the one Kim visited in early August. There are also other facilities in the country that have been linked to aircraft engine production, such as the January 18 Factory in Kaechon.
The absence of dedicated testing reports in state media is another sign that the drones are not yet in an advanced stage. The brief mentions and clips of the two UAV models from state media in July appear in hindsight as more simple announcements of the capabilities, with the intention of leaving vague what stage of development they were in.
Experts noted at the time that much remains unknown about the reconnaissance and targeting technology of these aircraft and about how military operators will control and communicate with them given that the country lacks satellites of its own.
DETECTION TIPS AND WHAT’S NEXT
A number of clues pointing to drone testing appeared at Panghyon Airbase in North Phyongan Province in June and July in addition to the appearance of the two drone models on the runway.
These included the clearing of the main aircraft apron on the east end of the runway of jets and bringing out multiple vehicles and equipment stations to the runway on test days to operate the drones, according to Planet Labs satellite imagery.
NK Pro detected the Reaper-type drone on the Panghyon runway on June 3 and the Global Hawk-type drone on the runway on June 14, with vehicles and equipment surrounding them on both days.
Jets were first cleared out from the east apron at Panghyon Airbase between May 31 and June 2 | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Jets were first cleared out from the east apron at Panghyon Airbase between May 31 and June 2 | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
The SB-9 combat drone on the Panghyon Airbase runway on June 3 | Image: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
The SB-4 reconnaissance drone on the Panghyon Airbase runway on June 14 | Image: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Vehicles and equipment related to drone testing seemed to be present at the runway on June 24 at Panghyon Airbase | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Vehicles and equipment related to drone testing seemed to be present at the runway on June 25 at Panghyon Airbase | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Vehicles and equipment related to drone testing seemed to be present at the runway on July 19 at Panghyon Airbase | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Vehicles and equipment related to drone testing seemed to be present at the runway on July 20 at Panghyon Airbase | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
An aircraft resembling the SB-4 reconnaissance drone with a wingspan of about 35 meters appeared outside a hangar at Panghyon Airbase on July 21 | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Jets returned to the east apron at Panghyon Airbase between Aug. 18 and 24 | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Jets returned to the east apron at Panghyon Airbase between Aug. 18 and 24 | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK Pro
Similar vehicles and equipment indicative of active testing appeared again in Planet Labs imagery on and next to the runway on June 24 and 25 and from July 19 to 21, while the Global Hawk-type drone appeared outside a hangar at the airbase on July 21.
The military parade took place on July 27, with state TV coverage including multiple clips of the two drone models flying over the western region and Pyongyang. Signs of flight testing have not appeared since.
The main east apron at the runway was first cleared of aircraft at the start of June and planes did not resume daily activity at the apron until between Aug. 18 and 24, according to Planet Labs imagery. This suggests testing could have continued in August, but it is less likely that it has occurred in the months since.
NK Pro reviewed around 60 images for each of North Korea’s 20 other paved military runways taken since May and found no similar signs of drone testing at any of them.
Going forward, it will be important to keep close watch on Panghyon and other airbases for the resumption of test-related activity to gauge progress toward mass production and deployment.
Pukchang Airbase is another location that could be linked to drone testing or basing in the future, as it is currently undergoing large-scale remodeling and is located close to the January 18 Factory where UAV or related engine production could be taking place.
Construction of new hangars large enough to house the Reaper-type SB-9’s 20-meter wingspan (65 feet) and Global Hawk-type SB-4’s 35-meter wingspan (115 feet) at Pukchang, Panghyon or another airbase would also signal preparations for deployment and possibly active reconnaissance missions.
Edited by Alannah Hill
