POLITICSTURKEY
Tallying Turkey-Syria earthquake’s devastation
Burak Ünveren | Pelin Ünker | Rainer Sollich
20 minutes ago20 minutes ago
Several quakes shook southern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6. The humanitarian, political and social aftershocks have been devastating in both countries.
https://p.dw.com/p/4OG3Y
At least 50,000 people have died, millions have lost their homes, and 214,000 buildings have collapsed or are at risk of doing so after the February 6 earthquake. The deaths and damage spanned 11 provinces in Turkey alone. Millions of people remain in urgent need of help.
The death toll is expected to rise because there are numerous victims whose identities have yet to be clarified and who have not yet been officially registered as dead. People continue to look for their loved ones. Turkey’s Justice Ministry did not comment when DW asked how many people were still missing.
A man and his father stand on rubble and try to rescue some of their belongingsA man and his father stand on rubble and try to rescue some of their belongings
The earthquake’s devastation spanned 11 provinces in TurkeyImage: ELOISA LOPEZ/REUTERS
The grief of the survivors became intertwined with anger immediately after the quakes. People started asking how it was possible that so many buildings that were supposedly earthquake-proof had simply collapsed. They blamed the authorities and accused them of negligence. It turns out that building regulations were often not followed. So far, almost 1,000 people are formally suspected of having skirted construction regulations. So far, at least 235 people have been arrested, 330 are being monitored under judicial control, and four are in pretrial detention. Arrest warrants have also been issued for 270 other suspects. Five are abroad, 82 have already been released, and 32 have died.
Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority had warned of the potentially catastrophic consequences of an earthquake years ago. It had also prepared and issued plans to reduce the risks from disasters from 2019 to 2021.
In 2020, one of these plans forecast that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake would occur in Kahramanmaras. That prediction came true on February 6.
An aerial view of destroyed buildings in Kahramanmaras, with smoke and dust risingAn aerial view of destroyed buildings in Kahramanmaras, with smoke and dust rising
Scientists had predicted a 7.5 magnitude quake in KahramanmarasImage: ISSAM ABDALLAH/REUTERS
Children injured, displaced
According to UNICEF, about 5 million children have been affected by the earthquakes. On Wednesday, Turkey’s Family and Social Services Ministry stated that, of the 1,911 children rescued from the ruins who did not require heavy medical intervention, 1,543 have been handed over to family members. Almost 100 remained in the care of the ministry itself, and 81 had yet to be identified.
The ministry rejected reports that some of the children had been handed over to Islamist groups and associations with official connections. However, Halk TV, a station that is critical of the government, has reported that 60 children have been placed in three buildings in the Istanbul district of Beykoz where they were apparently in the care of Islamist groups.
DW’s Turkish service also reported that nine children had been taken away from their parents and enrolled in a Quran school with links to the radical Ismailaga branch of the Sufi Order.
Erdogan advances elections
The government is under fire as Turkey is heading for presidential and parliamentary elections. The campaign was briefly interrupted after the earthquake but seems to have begun in earnest again. On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized the opposition in a speech and signaled that elections would be brought forward from June to take place on May 14. A decree is expected to be issued on Friday to make this date official.
It is not known how the voting will take place in the most-affected cities. There has been a suggestion that voters from the earthquake zone would be able to cast their ballots in other cities for the presidential vote but not for the parliamentary elections.
The mammoth task of reconstruction comes as Turkey is already in the midst of an economic crisis. The World Bank has calculated that the earthquake caused material damage worth of $34.2 billion (€32.5 billion). According to the Turkish Statistical Office (TÜIK), approximately 14 million people live in the 11 cities in the earthquake zone. The economy in the region, which accounts for about 9.8% of the GDP, is based on agriculture and animal husbandry, as well as textiles, steel and energy.
The economist Mahfi Egilmez, a former undersecretary at Turkey’s Finance Ministry, has published a detailed study on the economic consequences of the quake. In it he calculates that the removal of debris, the repair of damaged residential buildings and infrastructure, the construction of new homes, and state financial aid of $2.5 billion will come to a total of $48.7 billion. Of this, $27 billion will be for new housing.
Economists say the destruction will lead to increased demand for many products and services, which in turn will fuel inflation, which is already high. The economist Murat Kubilay told DW that he expected inflation to reach at least 50% by the end of 2023.
Freedom of speech and the press has been further restricted in Turkey since the earthquake. The Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK) has already imposed fines amounting to around 8 million Turkish lira (ca. $426,000) on three TV stations for their coverage of the earthquake.
Supporters of the major soccer clubs Fenerbahce and Besiktas who recently called on Erdogan and his government to resign have been banned from attending sporting events.
Syria’s unknowable toll
The part of northern Syria affected by the earthquake had already been devastated by 12 years of civil war that Bashar Assad’s regime has waged with the backing of Russia and Iran. Media report that about 8.8 million people were affected by the quake, many of whom are now homeless. Officially, there were 5,900 deaths but the actual figure is probably much higher.
A man cries against a backdrop of devastation after the quakesA man cries against a backdrop of devastation after the quakes
Much of the aid being sent to Syria is not reaching the people who need itImage: Aaref Watad/AFP/Getty Images
Most of the people affected in Syria received no help at all in the first few days. One of the reasons was that the borders were blocked. Though aid is now being sent to Syria, it is not reaching the people affected. Large parts of the earthquake zone are not under the full control of the regime. The city of Idlib, effectively the last rebel stronghold, is mainly controlled by Islamist militias. There are more than 2 million people who fled from other parts of Syria living here. Observers say the aid officially sent to Syria is not arriving here.
Before the quakes, there were already about 1.8 million displaced people living in makeshift tents, shelters and homes in northwestern Syria. Now, many are forced to live outdoors in freezing temperatures. Ammar Fayyad told a reporter from DW’s Arabic service that he and his son were traumatized and living in a car: “Tents cost between $200 and $400, and we can’t afford that, so we’ve decided to stay here.”
This article was originally written in German.
