Analysis
Sunak’s performed a full diplomatic reset, but can Britain afford the new course he wants to steer?
The prime minister is for the time being the golden boy of western diplomacy, but it might not take much, at home or abroad, to see his stock fall.
Sam Coates
Deputy political editor @SamCoatesSky
Tuesday 14 March 2023 05:43, UK
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There comes a point where the treacly praise of one world leader to another can tip into being unhelpful.
That point came when Joe Biden single-handedly identified every trait in Rishi Sunak which is unlikely to appeal to Boris Johnson enthusiasts in the ‘red wall’, and put them together in one brief pat on the head.
“First of all, I want to welcome you back to California. He’s a Stanford man, and he still has a home here in California,” said Biden to Sunak – who had been polishing on his diplomatic fixed grin to evident effect. Biden kept going: “That’s why I’m being very nice to you, maybe you can invite me to your home in California.”
The prime minister’s aides had been very firm that there would be no visit to the Santa Monica Sunak residence, around 115 miles away.
Biden continued: “But all kidding aside, I think it’s an historic day for our countries.”
Rishi Sunak certainly looked today like he was feeling the hand of history on his shoulder. Having done a Brexit deal the US has blessed, he has performed a full diplomatic reset and is now the golden boy of Western diplomacy, and is reaping the rewards.
Allies like Macron cannot help but glory in the contrast with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. President Biden promised to return to the UK in a matter of weeks, then another Sunak visit to Washington in June, so there will be more Davos moments to look forward to soon.
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Make no mistake though, today was as significant as it felt, standing in San Diego Bay surrounded by attack ships and submarines.
China is in the sights of the West more than ever before, and diplomatic divisions between western partners and China hardened in a way that will have ramifications for decades.
The US, UK and Australian leaders may have avoided singling out China at the event, but as a result of this pact and the way it’s being sold around the world Britain is now firmly on a faster collision course with Beijing.
The way the Aukus trio held back from overt criticism of China is, if anything, more worrying. That President Biden repeatedly stressed nuclear powered submarines being sold to Australia by Aukus are completely different to the nuclear armed submarines which are nothing to do with this military alliance is revealing.
It suggests that despite the overt pomp and symbolism, all three are still worried about Beijing’s reaction, and equivocating about how this will land in the UK.
Rishi Sunak, 42, will be in his 60s before Australia takes delivery of some of the submarines as part of this deal. Yet the consequences of the increased focus on China will be felt sooner.
Already there seems to be a squabble over the limited additional resources being offered to the British military – £5 billion over two years – with the bulk going to the UK’s nuclear submarine fleet.
In the Sky News interview, Sunak suggests it was for military chiefs to choose how to allocate resources themselves. But in reality it will be for politicians to make decisions, and the settlement was only half of what Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is reported to have been demanding.
Experts say this is likely to mean cuts to the army at a time there is a war on the doorstep of Europe.
Britain has set a new course: whether it can afford it is yet to be seen.
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